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New HIV infections (per 1000 uninfected population)

Indicator name:
HIV incidence rate (per 1000 uninfected population)
Short name:
HIV incidence rate
Data type:
Rate
Indicator Id:
4752
Topic:
Mortality and burden of disease
Rationale:
         The number of new infections is important for monitoring both epidemic trends and dynamics within the population.  
Definition:
Number of new HIV infections per 1000 uninfected population. The incidence rate is the number of new cases per population at risk in a given time period. Numerator: Number of new HIV infections. Denominator: Uninfected population (which is the total population minus people living with HIV).
Disaggregation:
Age groups (0−14, 15−24, 15−49, 50+ years), General population, Key populations (men who have sex with men,sex workers,People who inject drugs,transgender people, prisoners, Key populations (less than 25 years, 25+ years), Mode of transmission for children (including mother-to-child transmission), Geographic location, Sex
Method of measurement
Longitudinal data on individuals are the best source of data but are rarely available for large populations. Special diagnostic tests in surveys or from health facilities can be used to obtain data on HIV incidence.Longitudinal data on uninfected individuals are the best source of data but are rarely available for large populations. Special diagnostic tests in population-based surveys or from health facilities can be used to obtain data on HIV incidence but results must be nationally-representative and adjusted for performance of the diagnostic tests. Most countries will rely on modelled estimates using Spectrum, a UNAIDS-supported software tool. To calculate the uninfected population per 1000, the estimate of the number of people living with HIV is subtracted from the previous year’s population estimates produced by the United Nations Population Division.  
M&E Framework:
Impact
Method of estimation:
Modelling is often used to obtain an estimate of new infections. Prevalence data are the main input data.  
Other possible data sources:
Regular surveillance system among key populations
Preferred data sources:
Household or key population survey with HIV incidence-testing
Spectrum modelling
Unit of Measure:
Cases per 1 000 population
Expected frequency of data dissemination:
Annual
Expected frequency of data collection:
Annual
Contact person email:
beusenbergm@who.int
Name:
Mr Michel Beusenberg
Links:
Consolidated Strategic Information Guidelines for HIV in the Health Sector. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2015 (accessed 26 March 2018)
Spectrum software. Glastonbury (CT): Avenir Health. (accessed 29 March 2015).
The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2017 United Nations New York, 2017
Global health sector strategy on HIV, 2016-2021. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2016 (accessed 26 March 2018)
Sustainable development goal 3. Knowledge platform. Progress and info (2017). (accessed 26 March 2018)
http://aidsinfo.unaids.org/
Indicator Metadata Registry List
Situations and trends The estimated annual number of new HIV infections in 2018 was 37% lower than in 2000: 1.7 million versus 2.8 million. However, the decline in HIV incidence has slowed markedly in the past few years: the impressive decline in global HIV incidence seen during 2000–2010 has stalled. This is partly related to changing population demographics in many countries, as growing numbers of adolescents and young people mature to ages where HIV risk is greatest. Prevention efforts need to expand to address this trend. Countries need to live up to their commitment to end the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat by 2030 – a target included in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in September 2015. The immediate challenge is to reach the Fast-Track targets for 2020, as new infections are still unacceptably high. The 2020 targets include reducing the number of people acquiring HIV to fewer than 500 000. Based on current estimates, this provides an opportunity to prevent over 1.2 million new infections per year.
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